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☆ Cocoa prices just hit a record high. Here's what's driving the gains and what it means for chocolate makers
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

If you think chocolate prices this Valentine's Day were more expensive than usual, it's not you. Year to date, futures contracts are up nearly 27%, with cocoa prices rising in six of the past seven weeks. Here's a breakdown of what's driving cocoa prices higher and how it impacts the investment case around two major chocolate stocks. Doshi thinks cocoa prices could sell off about 20%, taking them to around $4,500 to $4,800 per ton. In an interview with CNBC last week, he underscored the rising cocoa price outlook as the key driver for his lower rating.

Persons: Humza Hussain, El, Aakash Doshi, Doshi, Bernstein, Bruno Monteyne, … There's, Mondelez, Alexia Howard, Hershey, Michele Buck, Bernstein's Howard, Howard, I'd, Bryan Spillane, Morgan Stanley, Pamela Kaufman, Bank of America's Spillane Organizations: Asset Management, CNBC, Hershey, Citi, 2H, Street, Bank of America, Bank of, Cadbury Locations: Mondelez, El Niño, Ghana, Ivory, Nigeria, Europe

☆ El Niño rains in Kenya have caused devastating flooding and killed over 120 people. Here's what it looks like.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Katie Balevic | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The weather event El Niño is impacting the climate patterns, causing temperatures to rise. The UN World Meteorological Organization expects the warming El Niño weather to last into 2024. AdvertisementMass flooding in Africa is displacing hundreds of people in Kenya by flooding roads and communities. The chaotic weather stems from the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a weather event that occurs naturally and irregularly about every two to seven years. In eastern Africa, El Niño typically causes wet conditions, according to the WHO.

Persons: —, El Organizations: UN World Meteorological Organization, Service, El, World Health Organization, WHO Locations: Kenya, Africa, Southern

☆ Scientists said the ozone hole was recovering. That good news was premature, one study claims
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Angela Dewan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But in a new study published Tuesday, some scientists claim it may not be recovering at all, and that the hole may even be expanding. In a paper, published by Nature Communications, they found that ozone levels have reduced by 26% since 2004 at the core of the hole in the Antarctic springtime. They used historical data to compare that behavior and changing ozone levels, and to measure signs of ozone recovery. “Altogether, our findings reveal the recent, large ozone holes may not be caused just by CFCs,” Kessenich said. “Those events have been shown to have strongly decreased the ozone hole size,” he said, “so including those events would probably have nullified any long-term negative trend.”

Persons: ”, Hannah Kessenich, didn’t, ” Kessenich, —, Martin Jucker Organizations: CNN, Nature Communications, University of Otago, University of New, Science Media Center Locations: UN, Montreal, New Zealand, El, Southern, University of New South Wales, Australia

☆ Cocoa farmers face mounting challenges as El Nino rages on
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Quek Jie Ann | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and climate change hurts cocoa production. According to the the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook, El Nino is expected to last through January to March 2024, with a 71% chance it will intensify from November to January. An intensified and frequent El Nino effect could significantly reduce the amount of arable land for cocoa cultivation. watch nowAccording to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a high intensity El Nino may result in severe economic disruption across Africa. The financial cost of El Nino and climate change remains unquantified for Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana.

Persons: Cristina Aldehuela, El, El Nino, Nino, Jonathan Haines, it's, Kerry Daroci, Daroci, That's, Steffany Bermudez, Bermudez Organizations: Afp, Getty, El, El Nino, Southern Oscillation, Gro Intelligence, CNBC, Cocoa, Rainforest Alliance, International Cocoa Organization ., West Africa's Cote d'Ivoire, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Economist Intelligence Unit, Cote d'Ivoire, West, Rainforest, International Cocoa Organization, Environmental Protection Agency, International Institute for Sustainable Development Locations: Asikasu, Ghana, El Nino, West, West Africa, Kerry, Brazil, Ecuador, International Cocoa Organization . Asia, Pacific, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, West Africa's Cote, Ivory, Ivory Coast, Africa, London, New York

☆ An El Niño winter is coming: What could that mean for the US?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Mary Gilbert | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which tracks water temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can have rippling effects on weather patterns around the globe. A wetter southern tier and a drier northern tier in an outlook for this winter from the Climate Prediction Center have all the fingerprints of an El Niño winter. El Niño winter patterns are less regular in California, the Southwest and the Northeast. The Northeast doesn’t have a well-defined set of expectations during an El Niño winter. A very strong El Niño during the 2015-2016 winter contributed to the warmest winter on record for the US mainland, according to NOAA.

Persons: it’s, Niño, El Niño, Niña, Harry Lynch Organizations: CNN, El, West, NOAA, Rockies, snowpack, ., Raleigh News, Observer, Tribune, Service, Carolinas Locations: El, Southern, Texas , Louisiana, Mississippi, South, Pacific Northwest, Plains, Midwest, Pacific, California, Raleigh , North Carolina, Texas, East Coast

☆ Heat Records Fall Around the Globe as Earth Warms, Fast
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Brad Plumer | More About Brad Plumer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On Tuesday, global average temperatures rose to a new high of 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit. But, he added, there may be other factors layered on top of human-caused warming that have helped drive temperatures up so dramatically in recent months. For instance, a cyclical phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation causes year-to-year fluctuations by shifting heat in and out of deeper ocean layers. Global surface temperatures tend to be somewhat cooler during La Niña years and somewhat hotter during El Niño years. “A big reason we’re seeing so many records shattered is that we’re transitioning out of an unusually long three-year La Niña, which suppressed temperatures a bit, and into a strong El Niño,” Dr. Hausfather said.

Persons: Zeke Hausfather, El, “, Hausfather Organizations: Service, Berkeley, Southern

☆ Climate event El Niño could hit the economy from food prices to clothing sales this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that’s not the only effects expected: Combined with climate change, El Niño this year could dent US economic growth, potentially impacting everything from food prices to the winter clothing sales. Higher food prices are a common theme across El Niño events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. Dry weather has parched crops in El Salvador as the El Niño weather threatens food security. The last time there was an El Niño in 2018 through 2019, NOAA dubbed it “The Great Puny El Niño” due to its relatively weak impact on weather conditions. He projects that El Niño weather events could cause $84 trillion in economic losses in the 21st century.

Persons: Niño, that’s, ”, Christopher Callahan, ” Christopher Callahan, El, Lesley, Ann Dupigny, Giroux, Yi Yu, Linh Pham, Winters, Yu, Callahan, Simeon Siegel, “, Chris Scheuring, “ It’s, Camilo Freedman Organizations: CNN, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Dartmouth, Southern, University of Vermont, University of California, Southwestern, Vietnam Electricity Group, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Dupigny, US Federal Aviation Administration, California Farm Bureau, La Union, Prediction Locations: Niño, University of California Irvine, Asia, Australia, Southwestern United States, Tri An, Vinh Cuu, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam, United States, rainier, El, Pasaquina, La, El Salvador

☆ El Niño is here and could bring warmer temperatures, more extreme weather patterns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Catherine Clifford | In Catclifford | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño La Niña Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. El Niño generally causes drier conditions in Australia and Southeast Asia, and wetter and warmer conditions in the Americas. El Niño ("little boy" in Spanish) and La Niña ("little girl" in Spanish) are weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact weather conditions around the globe. NOAA said there is an 84% chance of an El Niño with a greater than moderate strength and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing by the winter. While these regions may see warmer temperatures, Schmidt was careful to point out that El Niño does not guarantee a heat record in any region.

Persons: Niño, El Niño, We've, Gavin A, Schmidt, El Organizations: El, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, CNBC, Tropic, Cancer Locations: Australia, Southeast Asia, Americas, United States, California, Gulf, Pacific Northwest, Ohio, El, Indonesia, South America, Eurasia

☆ A looming El Niño could prompt a spike in global temperatures, UN agency warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Emma Newburger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An El Niño climate pattern will likely develop later this year, which could exacerbate global warming and break temperature records around the world, forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday. The United Nations agency said it cannot yet forecast the strength or duration of the El Niño, but according to its outlook, there is a 60% chance that the El Niño will form between May and July and an 80% chance it will form between July and September. "The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records," Taalas said. An El Niño has the opposite effects on weather and climate patterns than a La Niña. Both weather patterns result from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and are part of an intermittent cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

☆ The return of El Nino could make the world even hotter — endangering a critical climate threshold
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The El Nino Southern Oscillation system is composed of El Nino and La Nina — two opposite states of fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, which can have significant consequences on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies across the world. An El Nino event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The warmest year ever recorded, 2016, started off with a powerful El Nino that helped to boost global temperatures. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius. Weather conditions are likely to be drier than average in Indonesia during an El Nino event as rainfall moves out to the Pacific Ocean.

☆ Fact Check-Eight cooler years cannot be extrapolated to draw conclusions on long-term global warming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONSGlobal surface temperatures are heavily influenced by annual Pacific Ocean patterns known as El Nino and La Nina, and collectively as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). A large El Nino event followed by a La Nina can “lead to a temporary ‘pause’ in global temperatures over timescales of a decade or so”, Hausfather said. This is “what we are now seeing after the 2015/2016 super El Nino event”. Whenever there is a trend with variability like global temperatures, “you can isolate cherry-picked intervals and claim that something has paused or accelerated, but this is not appropriate”, Colose said. Temperature data for the past eight years do not reflect long-term trends, experts say, and longer-term data clearly show a continuing rise in overall global temperatures.

That mildly increases the chance of a bountiful U.S. corn crop, but a disaster cannot be ruled out. La Nina and its warm-phase cousin El Nino usually peak in strength during the U.S. winter. La Nina is on its third consecutive season, but its departure could be near. Although it varied greatly by state, U.S. farmers on average did not produce a stellar corn crop in 2022 due to drought in the west. Recent years where an early-year La Nina gave way to El Nino by year’s end include 2018, 2009 and 2006.

☆ U.S. forecaster sees La Niña prevailing during winter
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Dec 8 (Reuters) - La Niña is expected to continue during the northern hemisphere winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions during January to March of 2023, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday. There is about a 71% chance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during February to April of 2023, the forecaster said. The La Niña weather pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Reporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fact Check-Study on Greenland warming does not contradict human-driven climate change
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Rather, the study focused on a natural Pacific Ocean weather anomaly and its role in a recent slowdown of Greenland warming. The study’s finding that the slowdown in Greenland warming was driven largely by CP ENSO events doesn’t dispute anthropogenic climate change, Matsumura said. In fact, CP ENSO events have been projected to increase under global warming, Matsumura added, and a frequent occurrence of La Niña would likely accelerate Greenland warming (here), (here). Reuters Fact Check has previously addressed claims that short-term trends in Arctic ice cover undermine the idea that human-driven climate warming is a threat (here). A study by researchers in Japan that explains cooler Greenland summers with less ice melt over the past decade does not undermine the notion of human-driven climate change.

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